报告题目：Probabilistic Quantitative Rockfall Risk Assessment: Framework, Methodologies and Applications to Road Infrastructure

报告嘉宾：DR. Maddalena MARCHELLI, Politecnico di Torino (都灵理工大学), Italy 主 持 人：祝志文 教授

报告时间：2025年11月25日 15:00

报告地点：土木系会议室 (工东301)

报告摘要 (Report Abstract)：

First Section: Quantitative rockfall risk assessment: a comprehensive probabilistic formulation for hazard, vulnerability, and residual risk

The quantitative assessment is a challenging yet essential step in rockfall risk management, crucial for implementing effective mitigation strategies and allocating available economic resources. Key aspects include understanding the temporal and spatial probabilities of occurrence, the size of the rockfall blocks, their potential trajectories and impact energies, and the fragmentation processes. A critical component is the relationship between block volume and return period, combined with occurrence probabilities, which strongly influence hazard characterization. Similarly, quantifying damages requires knowledge of the vulnerability and value of the elements at risk under different conditions.

In this seminar, the basics concepts on rockfall analysis are expanded into a comprehensive probabilistic formulation that accounts for all possible block detachment scenarios and all potential damage scenarios, integrating their respective probabilities into a unified risk framework. Each step of the process is detailed, from hazard characterization to vulnerability assessment and risk computation, even in a long-term perspective in which climate change can play a relevant role.

A brief introduction on the structural measures to mitigate the risk are provided, anticipating more detailed discussions in subsequent talks. Finally, the concept of residual risk and its quantification in engineered slopes will be debated.

Second Section: Quantitative rockfall risk assessment for road infrastructure: a new methodology and case studies in the North-Western Italian Alps

Rockfall events pose a significant threat to road infrastructure, often resulting in service disruptions, economic losses, and safety hazards. Quantitative risk assessment is therefore essential for prioritizing interventions and optimizing resource allocation.

Building on the theoretical framework introduced in the first seminar, this presentation focuses on a new methodology for rockfall risk assessment on road networks, developed at Politecnico di Torino. The proposed approach integrates hazard characterization, propagation analysis, and vulnerability assessment into a unified probabilistic framework, employing an event-tree approach that accounts for all possible incident scenarios.

The analysis begins with a comprehensive characterization of the phenomenon and block volumes, followed by propagation simulations to determine likely impact points and energy levels. Risk is then quantified for different traffic and infrastructure scenarios, and mitigation measures are proposed based on cost-effectiveness evaluation. Case studies in Aosta Valley will be presented to illustrate the practical application of the method.

The seminar highlights how this methodology supports decision-making for road safety management, offering a transparent and adaptable tool for authorities and engineers.

报告人简介 (Personal Biography)：

Maddalena Marchelli is a researcher in civil and environmental engineering, specializing in natural hazards, risk analysis, and mitigation, with a focus on rockfall. She is a recipient of the highly competitive European Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship (HORIZON-MSCA-2022-PF-01) and currently a Marie Curie Researcher at Politecnico di Torino on the project RIDETHERISK (GA 101103401), investigating fragmentation processes in rockfall propagation and risk analysis in mountain and mining contexts. As part of this project, she spent 1.5 years conducting research at the Centre for Geotechnical Science and Engineering, University of Newcastle, Australia.

Previously a fixed-term Assistant Professor and postdoctoral fellow at Politecnico di Torino, she has focused for over eight years on risk analysis and the design of structural mitigation measures. After earning her Ph.D. in Environmental Engineering on debris flow, her research shifted to rock slope instability phenomena. She is co-responsible for the Rockfall Protection Engineering Research Center and an active member of the Multidisciplinary Interdepartmental Center SISCON at POLITO.

She has authored 65 publications (36 in international peer-reviewed journals and 29 in conference proceedings) and contributed to 28 research projects funded by the EU, national and local governments, and industry. She serves on the editorial boards of two peer-reviewed journals, Environmental and Mining Geoengineering and Geosciences, and reviews for several international journals. She has participated in scientific and/or organizing committees for 10 conferences (3 national, 7 international).

She holds the Italian scientific qualification for Associate Professor in both “Excavation Engineering” and “Geotechnics.” Since 2018, she has been an adjunct professor at Politecnico di Torino, supervising 14 master’s theses and co-supervising 2 doctoral students.。

请工学院土木与智慧建设工程系的老师、研究生和高年级本科生参加，欢迎工学院和学校其他院系有兴趣的师生参加！

工学院

2025年11月19日